Tag Archives: operations

Common Danger Signals of Company Decline

Previously, we have examined the internal and external elements of decline and some of the early warning signals of each. Notably, we have made the distinction that, while internal elements are easier to control, external elements are capable of being influenced as well. It is the responsibility of the executive team to coordinate marketing and sales, operations and finance in such a way as to anticipate changes in the environment and plan accordingly.

The clear danger signals of decline vary with the stages of decline, and become more serious as the decline intensifies. Some of the common danger signals are as follows:

Common Danger Signals

Early Decline:

  • shortage of cash
  • strained liquidity
  • reduced working capital
  • stretched accounts payable
  • late accounts receivable
  • reduction of return-on-investment (ROI) by 20-30 percent
  • flat sales
  • several quarters of losses
  • increased employee absenteeism
  • increased employee accidents
  • increased customer complaints (product quality, delivery)
  • late financial and management information

Mid-Term Decline:

  • increasing inventory
  • decreasing sales
  • decreasing margins
  • increased expenses
  • increased advances from banks
  • requests for additional considerations from banks
  • late and unreliable financial and management information
  • erosion of customer confidence
  • accelerated accounts payable from vendors
  • overdrafts at the bank
  • delayed accounts receivable from opportunistic customers
  • violation of loan covenants
  • bank used to cover payroll
  • increased interest rates on indebtedness from banks due to increased perception of risk

Late Decline:

  • little attention  paid to profit decrease
  • staff cutbacks without analyzing cause of problems
  • overdrawn bank accounts as substitute for line of credit
  • cash crisis
  • accounts payable 60-90 days late
  • accounts receivable 90+ days late
  • further decline in sales
  • extremely low employee morale
  • eroding company credibility
  • excessive decreased inventory turnover
  • supplier restrictions
  • fewer reports to bank
  • qualified opinion from auditor
  • bounced checks
  • cutoff on supplies
  • credit offsets
  • accounts receivable continuing to age
  • further decrease in margins
  • further decrease in volume of sales
  • increase in uncollectible receivables
  • no liquidity
  • depleted working capital
  • lack of funds for payroll
  • ineffective management
  • attempts to convince creditors that company is viable and that liquidation is not necessary

Signals That Can Occur At Any Stage:

  • decreased capital utilization
  • decreased market share in key product line(s)
  • increased overhead costs
  • increased management and employee turnover
  • salaries/benefits growing faster than productivity/profits
  • increased management layers
  • lost market share to competition, which is not keeping up with marketplace changes
  • management in conflict with corporate goals and objectives
  • opposing directions for company and management
  • sales forecasts that predict that company can sell its way out of difficulty
  • poor internal accounting
  • credit advances to customers who do not pay on time
  • non-seasonal borrowing
  • sudden overdrafts
  • increased trade credit inquiries (a signal that new vendors are being sought out)

Not all of these symptoms may appear; it is sufficient cause for self-examination if some of them occur. As the problems of the business increase, its reputation with suppliers, banks, current customers, and other stakeholders is severely diminished. A credibility gap may occur, placing the business in the position of having to defend itself not just from internal and external factors, but also from a loss of esteem in the business community. Credibility is a key factor to the success of a business. Just as a company’s credibility within the commercial and banking community can ensure its success, a lack of credibility can just as surely cause its demise.

 

(Internal) Early Warning Signals of Decline

As ominous as uncontrollable external elements may appear, they are not the major cause of business failure. Rather, controllable internal elements are most frequently the problem. The internal elements that affect businesses are finance, operations, and marketing and sales. These are the basic functions over which a company’s executive team exercises direct control. Any business function can be placed within these categories. 

Business management is the force that drives these functions; yet changes in internal elements are at the root of the majority of business failures. These failures do not occur overnight; rather, such business decline usually occurs in stages. Extensive research that the founder of our organization performed suggests that the basic reason companies fail to recognize the onset of decline is simple management myopia or ignorance.

When your team fails to recognize the internal signals of decline, rationalization often ensues, with blame attributed to uncontrollable external elements. This approach appears on the surface to absolve management of responsibility for the company’s problems. For example, a shortage of cash might be blamed on stricter banking standards or lack of demand for the product/service. This “problem” can then be attributed to the nation’s economy.

Management can then take smaller “leaps of logic” to shift the blame to increased competition, which has made the marketplace unpredictable. While a shortage of cash is a symptom of a problem and surely a major signal of decline, the shortage of cash itself is not the actual problem; the problem may be buried deep within the business’s management and accounting information systems. You may be making sales at a price that does not cover the fixed costs of operations, or accounting personnel may not have developed contribution margin, product cost, and direct cost of sales standards. If your “system” cannot measure the causes of unprofitability, how do you know what changes to make?

As with external elements, internal elements can also interact with one another. Finance, operations, and marketing and sale shave a natural interaction with each other and are, in fact, related to one another. any one of these internal elements may cause decline. As the problem persists, the other functions become involved. Operations techniques may become antiquated. Marketing and sales can be in the wrong market with the wrong product. Finance may be unaware of other departments’ changing financial requirements. Such a lack of information flow between departments also signals decline. Businesses cannot survive without information about both internal and external environments.

Coping With Internal Elements

It is unfortunate when managerial tools are not used for maximum benefit. Many companies fail to manage by cash projections; instead they rely on “looking backward” statements like balance sheets and P&L. Budgets comparing projections to performance are critical to effective management. When budgets are tasks rather than tools, your management is weak. Balance sheets can show working capital reserves even when a company is in decline. Changes in accounts is important to track–it can point you to root causes and symptoms of real problems.

Controlling Internal Elements

The internal elements are the factors that should be most familiar to executive teams, but they are often the most overlooked. The very nature of the internal elements is dynamic; they are continually evolving and require constant monitoring. Since managers may be unable to understand the dynamic nature of the internal elements, a decline may go unnoticed for a while. Management’s primary role is to use these elements to maximize profits. Controlling finance, marketing, and operations requires monitoring of all the functions to identify potential signals of decline.

 

Recognizing a Declining Business

In the past week, we have taken the time to look at characteristics of successful companies. In case you missed one of the posts, feel free to catch up by reading them in order (links below):

  1. How Successful Businesses Plan For Growth
  2. How Successful Companies Market
  3. How Successful Businesses Manage Their Finances
  4. How Successful Businesses Manage Their Operations
  5. How Successful Businesses Create Positive Cash Flow
  6. Revenue, Cost & Capital In Your Business
  7. How Successful Businesses Maintain Organizational Morale

This week, we are “flipping the equation” on you and examining what a business in decline looks like. As you track with the principles shared and lessons learned, you may find yourself to closely resemble a declining business in one way or another. Don’t despair! Knowing what needs to be fixed is important. You are that much closer to success than someone who doesn’t even realize that crisis is around the next corner because of ignorance.

No one is consistently successful. When things start to go wrong, however, the shrewd executive must recognize those events that are catastrophic and those that are not. Early warning signals of imminent business decline can occur both inside and outside a business. Changes in the operating environment due to external and internal elements may signal the beginning of decline. Once an executive team determines that the business is showing some symptoms of decline, the next step is to determine whether the decline is shaping up to be a twenty-four-hour bug or a terminal disease. Can it be treated? Can it be cured?

The Stages of Decline

Stages of decline include early, mid-term, and late periods, and recognition of these stages has an impact on the steps to reverse the decline. In early decline, it is very probable that the business can be totally saved and profitability restored quickly–often within a matter of months. In mid-term decline, the business has been suffering some erosion of value, and it may take a year or more to restore the value and resume profitable operations. Finally, there is a late decline. Sadly, fewer that one-third of companies in this type of serious trouble are able to reverse their decline and emerge on the other side “whole”–with existing management, ownership, and operations intact.

Before examining the warning signals of decline, we should look at the root causes leading to those signals. The earlier these causes of decline are observed, the easier it is to resolve them. The most common causes of decline–from both internal and external elements–are as follows:

The Causes of Decline

  • management by exception rather than by flexible planning
  • delegation without inspection or control–no feedback, review, or reinforcement
  • vertical organization chart with little if any interaction between departments (silos)
  • managers with responsibility for more than five direct reports
  • employees with more than one boss
  • chain of command broken when employees think necessary
  • breakdown in formal communications
  • overreliance on strategic plan
  • overreliance on management by objectives
  • senior managers’ abuse of outside activities and company benefits
  • marketing the wrong products
  • marketing in the wrong locations
  • aging workflow management techniques
  • inadequate research
  • inadequate staffing
  • inappropriate sales methods
  • unresponsive financial information systems
  • loss of competitive advantage
  • displacement by competition
  • changing technology
  • buyer preference changes
  • regulatory changes
  • economic changes
  • inadequate understanding of buyer needs
  • inadequate information flows, both between business functions and between company and customer
  • one department or business function dictating the mission, goals, and objectives of the company

All of the above causes for business decline are valid, and any one of them can precipitate the downfall of even an experienced team. Recognizing the warning signals of decline is the next step in righting the ship…

How Do Successful Businesses Manage Their Operations?

After working hard on the marketing plan and the financial plan, successful executive teams develop operating plans to implement them. These are the plans that ultimately result in successfully bringing one’s idea into the marketplace–and profits into the owner’s pocket. Staffing, office administration, and work flow supervision are the primary needs. Successful businesses anticipate problems and take steps immediately to improve workflow efficiency. Supervisors and budgets are assigned to control costs. If necessary, outside fractional help is secured to make sure that appropriate resources are allocated to the best potential outcomes. In addition, the top executive may recommend steps financial and marketing teams can take to enhance overall productivity–and, by extension, profitability. For example, organizations that offer and sell the same or similar goods or services over and over usually see fewer cost overruns and therefore generate more profit per unit of sale.

Staffing a business with the correct number and types of employees makes your workplace both productive and more enjoyable. Sprinkle in some training and development and you demonstrate care and concern for your people. Create feedback loops and engagement will soar. Successful organizations increase or decrease staff levels as operating plans require. Outsourced human resources–whether through independent contractors, fractional professional staff, or subcontracting–allows your company to optimize human resources for any level of work necessary. Making preparations to finish existing projects while beginning new ones and documenting how the work will be accomplished will focus your efforts.

Administering a variety of initiatives simultaneously places certain demands on office staff as well. A successful executive team thinks through the documentation needs of the organization and assigns responsibilities to appropriate personnel. Institutional knowledge is thereby captured for the benefit of all and adjustments become easier to make. Well-organized files–physical and electronic–are another vital component to smooth business operations and can eliminate wasted time and effort, as well as reinforce best practices!

Successful supervision of field (or plant or billable or development) personnel involves more than simply the “management by walking around” approach of yore. Think about technology as a means to do more with less. Creatively brainstorm as to how to maximize the benefits of being face-to-face versus virtual–it’s a trade-off of time, money, and precious additional resources. Recruiting and hiring should reflect an effort to add to the team those who are the best cultural fit rather than simply strong technicians who may undermine the esprit de corps. Compensation and performance management systems should reinforce your value system–not stand separate from it. Think of processes like equipping, quality management, customer service, coaching, mentoring, motivating as key factors in your success. When you do, plans can be made to enable your organization’s operations to become efficient and profitable.

How Successful Businesses Plan For Growth

Every business wants to obtain a strong market position within its target niche(s). How does one company achieve success when others lag behind (and some even fail)? The answer is surprisingly simple–successful businesses share the following six qualities:

  • They plan for growth constantly.
  • They market effectively.
  • They manage their finances shrewdly.
  • They supervise their operations watchfully.
  • They generate positive cash flow consistently.
  • They maintain positive company morale unwaveringly.

How Do Successful Companies Plan For Growth?

Companies that fail to plan for growth (or for downsizing, if necessary) are companies that operate out of control. By sheer luck, you may be able to make money for a season or two without planning. In most situations, however, luck and proactive planning must work hand in hand to make a business successful. Many companies aiming to be an industry pacesetter miss the mark because they allow one area of the business, be it marketing, operations, technology, or finance  to control the actions taken–or not taken–in other areas. Successful companies realize that planning the company’s direction is a far-reaching enterprise: the executive (team) must utilize information and resources from as many sources as possible. consider the external environment, and develop tasks to be accomplished within established schedules.

Without  a doubt, effective planning requires work. However, every business should consider planning for growth a positive challenge. On the other hand, if a company slows down or even stops growing, the executive (team) can still apply many of the principles applicable to business planning for growth.

Planning must first be understood in its proper context. Successful entrepreneurs understand that planning is not an annual event to be dreaded and feared, but rather the ongoing process of anticipating what will happen in the future and developing a strategy to respond to these events. Therefore, smart folks plan on a regular, even daily basis. In addition, their plans are not developed as dogmatic, end-all solutions to company problems or challenges from here to eternity. They understand that a plan by nature is subject to change and revision. Being flexible in the way one develops, implements, and modifies plans creates much greater success than those who do not plan at all–or those who only develop plans on an “as-needed” basis.

Furthermore, planning in successful operations is not arbitrarily limited to one area of the business. Effective planning encompasses all three of the primary functions of a profitable business: operations, finance, and marketing. Additionally, the preferred order for planning is not as some would imagine. For example, operations can not be allowed to determine the organization’s finance and marketing goals.

Most business executive teams plan only in so far as they make a schedule for the completion of various seasons of the year. Such small-scale planning is useful, but one must also develop a better feel for the “big picture”–the combined approach of marketing, finance, and operations that will generate desirable results in the next week, month, year, and decade. Many successful companies therefore draft their marketing plans first, outlining the number of units (whether of time if a services firm or items if a products firm), design/features, locations/markets, prices, and means of promotion. The financial plan then accounts for the obligations that will be undertaken as a result of the marketing plan. Finally, the operating plan discusses how customer/client needs will be met and what resources will be employed to make it happen.